SSAC15: CA – How Analytics has Limited the Impact of Cognitive Bias on Personnel Decisions


Competitive Advantage talk from the 9th MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, February 27-28, 2015, Boston, MA

A look at how educating and learning about different ways to analyze the game using quantitative measures have changed the way you can look at the game of ice hockey. Notably, how learning and advancing knowledge of hockey analytics can aid in eliminating the impact of cognitive biases on personnel decisions of all sorts. And finally, a look at what we are truly trying to accomplish by incorporating analytics into our organizations at this time.
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G’day all MrPaladin here.

Today I want to delve a little deeper into why we think the way we do about any subject in the scope of the game of TF2. I found a very interesting Poster that details all of the Cognitive Biases that mess with our thought processes on any subject. Keeping with the spirit of TF2 lets look at some things that can mess us up when we play.

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  1. Analytics turns everything into a nail because hammers don't hold anything together and have no value. The problem is, you can't drive nails without hammers.

  2. The analytics darling Chakya is going to have the Coyotes moved out of Arizona at this point. Oh yea, and the Oakland A's have done a great job of securing that World Series title in baseball lmao It's a bunch of fantasy gurus (nerds) who never played a sport in their life and think they can run a team. There is a reason Yzerman is the best GM in hockey, he knows the game…

  3. So what has this guy done?? I see nothing in the Leafs that would suggest this guy or anyone else other then Mike Babcock has made any difference for the Leafs. The jury is still out on Mark Hunter, its a little to early to see any of his work pay off personally, I think Sports Analytics is just people with an education thinking they can run a team like a fantasy league, its all just BS!!! The only reason the Leafs may get better is they finished near the bottom of the league for a few years and got some good players, the same way NHL teams have been doing it since the days of Hap Day.

  4. The smartest thing Kyle Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie was having the fortitude to hire Sheldon Keefe as his coach.
    He wouldn't be in the position he is now without that move, he probably would have been out of a job. Analytics doesn't build a championship at that level, it's always coaching. Analytics only complement what you're doing.

  5. Are there slides to go along with this?  Video is hard to follow without seeing the slides being referenced

  6. I remember the first time I equipped the Ringer…
    I was in harvest.
    I was running around wondering if my watch bugged, as I didn’t turn invisible.
    Then a demo came in and random crit me with his bottle, and I was extremely confused, not moving, trying to comprehend what just happened.
    I am invisible.
    I am not in the respawn screen.

  7. I literally have never seen anyone excited or happy they got a random critical. I've more often seen people apologise for getting random crits than I have people complain about them. I, for one, certainly don't want random critical hits in my games. Nothing feels worse than being cheated out of a fair fight or winning a fight I really shouldn't have purely because I rolled the dice better than the other guy.

  8. I'm gonna have to disagree with the cosmetics part. Of course, time played is the most important, but who's more likely to buy cosmetics: The guy who is good at the game and wants to put time and money in it or the guy who plays the game on and off and is not so good at the game? It's just how it works. F2ps probably don't spend as much time on the game. People who spend probaby want their money's worth and play the game, naturally the one with cosmetics is better.

  9. I remember back when I started playing TF2, I saw a spy disguised as me. Seeing him call for a medic in the voice chat made me think "oh, what a coincidence, someone has the exact same nick as me!"

  10. I usually heal the gibuses first to keep them from dying as the unusuals are more likely to keep alive a little longer assuming that the hats reflect their experience

  11. 5:22 Sadly, you can't spectate anymore.
    I really wish that you could change teams and spectate players, like you could before, so that I could learn from them or find out if that player was a hacker.
    I started playing properly after they were removed. 🙁

  12. A problem with your 2nd bias example is that you are not as likely to get random crits as someone who's consistently dealing damage given how "random" crits actually work. And if you are less likely to be consistently dealing damage in the first place, you are also less likely to be able to use said crit when it does eventually occur.

  13. Great video, but there is a small mistake in it. The Dunning-Kruger effect is the assumption that because you hold knowledge, there is no need to pursue further knowledge. It is a bias of mistaken superiority, where a person's beliefs about their own expertise clouds their judgement.

  14. "I've never been in a game where the MVP made every kill, and defended and attacked every objective solo." That would be amazing. 1v9 or 1v12 where the solo team is doing well.